Virendra Sharma MP

Virendra Sharma challenges local Tory candidate over bogus crime stats

Local Tory candidate challenged over bogus crime stats

Virendra Sharma MP wrote a letter asking the Tory candidate for Ealing Southall, Gurcharan Singh to confirm that he will not use bogus crime stats like his party leader David Cameron in his campaign.

Virendra Sharma MP said in his letter to the Tory candidate:

“I am giving you the opportunity to be honest with voters in Ealing Southall. Will you confirm that you will not use bogus Tory statistics which the BBC has shown are misleading and inaccurate?”

Last week Alan Johnson MP, Labour Home Secretary challenged the use of bogus crime statistics by Tory leader David Cameron. In a response to the UK Statistics Authority statement on the Tories misuse of crime stats, he said:

"David Cameron and Chris Grayling should apologise for continually misleading the British people about crime.

“They have plenty of form on this. In order to justify talking Britain down they have quoted dodgy statistics about schools and hospitals. Now it has been confirmed officially that they have continually mislead the public about crime. Up and down the country Conservative candidates are using these dodgy statistics. They must stop doing this immediately and explain that since 1997 crime has gone down by 36% and violent crime by 41%.

“I wrote to David Cameron in November 2009 and January 2010 challenging him on his use of dodgy crime statistics. I trust he will now have the decency to reply.”

Notes:

1. For a copy of Virendra Sharma’s letter to the Ealing Southall Tory candidate click here

Tory bogus stats letter

2. Labour’s record on tackling violent crime

Crime statistics: since 1997

The British Crime Survey (BCS) provides the most reliable measure of trends over time as it has a consistent methodology and is unaffected by changes in reporting and recording of crime. BCS for year ending March 2009 compared with 1997 (1998 BCS) shows:

¯       All crime as measured by the BCS down 36%.

¯       All BCS violence down 41%.

¯       Wounding down 42%

¯       Robbery down 19%

¯       Mugging down 10%

¯       Domestic violence down 64%.

¯       Assault with minor injury down 56%

·        The quarterly British Crime Survey (BCS) statistics this week (for 2007/8 – 2008/9) show a continued downward trend in most types of violent crime including:

¯       All BCS violence down 4%.

¯       Wounding down 2%

¯       Robbery down 13%

¯       Mugging down 5%

¯       Domestic violence down 15%.

¯        Assault with minor injury down 2%

3. Bogus Tory facts

Wrong on GP practice closures

·        In 2008 the Conservatives claimed that Labour’s plans for 152 new GP-led health centres across the country, to be open from 8am-8pm 365 days a year, would lead to the closure of 1,700 GP surgeries in England. The Conservatives issued a 58-page list of 600 “GP surgeries under threat”.[i]

·        In fact, this list was merely a list, compiled by the Conservatives, of surgeries which were in the same areas as the sites of planned GP-led health centres. There was never any suggestion that these surgeries would be closed to make way for the new facilities.

·        NHS Primary Care Trusts across the country rejected the Conservatives’ figures, explaining that there was no threat of service closures.[ii]

·        The British Medical association disputed the figure of 1,700 practice closures.[iii]

·        In May 2009, shadow health minister Mark Simmonds MP admitted in Parliament that concerns over GP practice closures were unjustified, and said that he was “a little uncomfortable with how some campaigns on this issue developed” – even though it was his own party that was putting out scaremongering claims about closures.[iv]

Wrong on poverty

·        David Cameron has said that he is concerned about a definition of poverty as “people with less than 40% of average household income” or “severe poverty”.[v]

·        This definition excludes 2.5 million children from targets on child poverty. The independent Institute of Fiscal Studies have said that such a definition is “not particularly accurate” because some people might have low incomes but enough wealth to have a purchasing power well above the poverty line[vi].

·        Child Poverty Action Group have called the statistic “dodgy” and pointed out that under that definition “poverty increased by nearly 500% under the last Conservative governments”[vii].

Wrong on NHS hospital closures

·        In August 2007 the Conservatives published a document, "Do District General Hospitals have a future under Labour?" which identified 29 "hospitals under threat".

·        It rapidly emerged that this document was full of errors, as at least 15 of the 29 hospitals on the Conservative list disputed the claims.

·        For example, the Conservatives claimed that Altrincham general hospital’s maternity and A&E services were under threat – but Altrincham general hospital had never had a maternity or A&E unit in the first place. David Cameron admitted that they had mixed Altrincham up with Trafford general hospital.[viii] However, a Trafford healthcare trust spokesman insisted Trafford A&E was safe.[ix] The maternity unit was being moved to Manchester Children’s Hospital.

·        The Tories also claimed that Horton’s A&E unit was under threat. When challenged, Andrew Lansley was adamant that this claim was true, saying “We wouldn’t get that wrong”, but the Chair of the local NHS Trust explained that “there is no threat, indeed it’s rather the opposite”.[x]

·        Andrew Lansley later admitted that he was “fallible”.[xi]

Wrong on rural school closures

·        In July 2009 Shadow Environment Secretary Nick Herbert launched the Conservatives’ Rural Action campaign, publishing what he claimed was a dossier of rural schools that had been closed since 1997.[xii]

·        But it turned out that the figures were wrong – and many of the schools the Conservatives had claimed had closed were actually still open. The Conservative leader of Wiltshire council attacked her own party’s use of the data as “unacceptable”.[xiii]

·        A Conservative spokesman said “it would have been too difficult” to work out which schools hadn’t actually closed.[xiv]

Wrong on poorer children’s GCSE results

·        The Conservatives have repeatedly claimed that “In those schools where more than half the children are eligible for free school meals only 13% of children get five decent GCSE passes."[xv]

·        But they know that this figure is incorrect - the DCSF’s Head of Statistics wrote to Michael Gove last year to point this out, as did the then Minister for Schools Jim Knight on 15th January 2009

·        In those schools where more than half of children are on free school meals, 33% get five or more good GCSEs including English and Maths – up 9 percentage points over the last four years. In fact, those schools with more poor pupils have seen bigger rises than other schools^[xvi].

Wrong on crime statistics

·        The Conservatives have frequently claimed that violent crime has doubled and Shadow Home Secretary, Chris Grayling, has even claimed it had risen by as much as 80 per cent.[xvii]However, the British Crime Survey shows that violent crime is in fact down by 41% since 1997.[xviii]

·        When Home Secretary, Alan Johnson, twice wrote to David Cameron to question the Conservatives’ bogus claims he received no reply. Instead, on the release of recent crime statistics, the Tory leader once again claimed that violent crime is rising “significantly”[xix].

·        It was pointed out by a BBC journalist that due to changes in the way violent crime is recorded, the figures used by the Conservatives are not comparable[xx], as is also plainly stated in the official statistics publication itself.[xxi]

·        This did not stop the Conservatives using the data in a release sent to every constituency in England and Wales - statistics which were called “extremely misleading” by at least one Police Force[xxii].

·        When given the opportunity during an interview to put the record straight Shadow Home Secretary, Chris Grayling, instead admitted he is fully aware of the change in the way the statistics are calculated and then refused to agree to tell Tory candidates and parties to stop using these bogus statistics.[xxiii]